RBI may finally go for a 25 bps rate cut in August if a good monsoon contains core inflation at a moderate 4-5%, as per report of Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML). BofAML had expected a 25 bps rate cut in the Feb 8 policy meet considering the demonetization shock, low inflation, lower fiscal deficit and a stabilizing US dollar. The report noted that the RBI has also cut down inflation risks broadly in proportion to its own forecasts.
The RBI Sixth bimonthly monetary policy review kept its repo rate unchanged at 6.25% in the meeting held today, opting to wait for more clarity on inflation trends and on how a drastic crackdown on black money after demonetization, is impacting economic growth.
Marginal Standing Facility and Bank rate kept unchanged at 6.75%. The Fiscal 2017 GVA (Gross Value Added) seen at 6.9% and the Financial year 2018-GVA seen at 7.4% with rick evenly balanced, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) seen below 5%. Repo rate is the rate at which the central bank of a country provide loadn to commercial banks in case of any shortfall of funds.
Meantime, Sensex is trading at 28228 down by 207 points or 0.38%. Nifty is trading at 8745 down by 23.45 points or 0.27% at 3.00 pm today.
FM Arun Jaitley announced a number of steps in the Union budget to draw funds from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). The proposals include an exemption from the provisions of indirect transfer tax for category I & II FPIs. The indirect tax provisions will still apply to category-III FPIs like corporate bodies, trusts and family offices. Category-I FPIs include foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds and government agencies. The category-II mutual funds and banks. However, hedge funds, individuals and other high-risk foreign investors will not get this relief.